You say you can’t trust the U.S. government like before? What’s going on?
Recently, in the investment world, there's growing talk that the U.S. government isn't trusted the way it used to be. What this means is that people are beginning to worry whether the U.S. is managing its money and economy properly. For example, while the U.S. defense budget is about $1 trillion, some now expect interest payments on debt to surpass even that. The national debt exceeds $36 trillion, and the annual interest alone is around $880 billion.
Historically, when a country's interest payments exceed its defense spending, it's considered a warning sign — suggesting that the government might be borrowing too much to manage responsibly. As a result, investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds is weakening.
Are U.S. and Japanese bonds really the same as gold? Why is that?
Traditionally, U.S. and Japanese government bonds have been seen as safe-haven assets, much like gold. That’s because they’re backed by the respective governments and considered very secure. Wealthy investors, in particular, value not losing their principal and have favored U.S. Treasuries for this reason.
But recently, those markets have shown unusual patterns. In particular, long-term bond yields have surged — which means bond prices are falling. This happens when investors are less willing to buy government bonds or demand higher interest rates to do so. It’s a clear signal that trust in the U.S. and Japanese governments as borrowers is eroding.
Is Trump’s policy causing dollar weakness?
Trump’s policies have often introduced uncertainty into markets — especially his trade wars and currency-related strategies. Some believe Trump aims to weaken the dollar to support U.S. manufacturing.
Tariffs on other countries can pressure those nations to strengthen their currencies in response. For example, if China or South Korea raises their currency value to avoid tariff pain, the dollar becomes weaker in comparison. This dynamic has led the market to expect further dollar weakening. A weaker dollar can hurt dollar-denominated assets like U.S. stocks and bonds.
Is the U.S. government relying on stablecoins now?
Recently, the U.S. government has shown increased interest in stablecoins — cryptocurrencies pegged to stable assets like the U.S. dollar to avoid price volatility. A stablecoin regulatory bill has even passed in the U.S., requiring stablecoin issuers to hold an equivalent amount of short-term U.S. government debt.
Why does this matter? Because due to Trump’s tax cuts, the U.S. is projected to run an additional $2.5 trillion deficit by 2030. Meanwhile, the stablecoin market is expected to explode in size — from its current $250 billion to potentially $2.5 trillion by 2030. If that happens, stablecoin issuers would be required to purchase a massive amount of U.S. Treasuries, indirectly helping the government finance its growing debt.
Is money really moving from U.S. stocks to Bitcoin and gold?
Yes — signs are emerging that capital flows are shifting. Roughly $3 billion has recently exited the U.S. stock market, largely due to growing uncertainty. While some of that money has gone to European and Asian markets, a significant portion has also flowed into safe-haven assets like Bitcoin and gold.
This trend reflects a bet against the dollar. Trump’s tax and trade policies are viewed by many as undermining U.S. financial credibility, leading to expectations of continued dollar weakness. Since a weakening dollar reduces the value of dollar-denominated assets, investors are pulling money out and reallocating elsewhere.
Is Bitcoin now considered a safe-haven asset?
In the past, Bitcoin was seen as a high-risk asset — it often fell alongside tech stocks like those in the Nasdaq. But with recent surges to all-time highs, the narrative is shifting. Investors increasingly view Bitcoin as a hedge during times of economic uncertainty.
The passage of the stablecoin law and expectations of a weaker dollar have only accelerated this trend. Money is leaving traditional markets and flowing into Bitcoin and gold, reinforcing Bitcoin's reputation as a “digital gold.” As this perception spreads, it’s likely that even more investors will treat Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.
So, you’re saying we shouldn’t trust what we see on the surface when investing?
Exactly. Investing solely based on visible facts can be risky. If you stick only to textbook strategies or follow what others are saying, you could miss critical undercurrents shaping the market.
Facts are important, but alone they’re not enough. Investors must interpret intent — connect dots across various pieces of information and uncover the real meaning hidden beneath. Ignoring the unseen just because it’s not labeled as “fact” can be an even greater risk.
What’s the “Tiger in the Bush” theory, and how does it relate to investing?
The “Tiger in the Bush” theory says that if you hear rustling in a bush, it's safer to assume it’s a tiger — even without evidence. If you’re wrong, all you’ve wasted is a bit of energy. But if you assume it’s nothing and it turns out to be a tiger, the consequences could be fatal.
This theory applies to investing, too. Markets are driven by unseen forces. It’s smarter to assume those forces could be dangerous (“a tiger”) and build cautious strategies around that. For example, assume there are hidden motives behind statements from people like Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon, or Trump’s Treasury officials. Even if your interpretation is wrong, you’ll have only spent some time and energy — but if you’re right and didn’t prepare, the losses could be devastating.
Final thoughts
We’ve learned that the world of investing is far more complex than it appears on the surface. The U.S. and China aren’t just randomly buying up Bitcoin and gold — they’re preparing for deeper shifts in global finance. The more investors understand these hidden forces, the better equipped they’ll be to survive and thrive.
Always watch the market closely — and learn to read between the lines.
