Back in June 2024, Malcolm Turnbull, the Australian Prime Minister from 2015 to 2018 who dealt with Trump during his first term, wrote a piece advising world leaders on how to handle Trump.
At the time, it wasn’t clear whether Trump would win the upcoming election, so Turnbull’s op-ed didn’t garner much attention and quietly faded away.
Reading it now, though, there’s a lot worth thinking about.
In his piece, Turnbull wrote, “Leaders around the world are desperate to flatter Trump and avoid his wrath, but that kind of submissive approach is a bad strategy.
Whether in the Oval Office or on any other stage, giving in to bullying only invites more of it. The only way to earn Trump’s respect is to stand up to him.”
His logic was that if you confront Trump directly and firmly, he might get angry at first, but once his temper cools, he ends up respecting you.
Turnbull shared his own experience wrestling with Trump over a refugee deal between the U.S. and Australia.
Trump’s aides had warned Turnbull beforehand not to even mention the refugee agreement, but Turnbull brought it up anyway and demanded the U.S. honor it.
Trump called it a “horrible deal” and blew up during the call, but by the end, he reluctantly agreed to stick with it.
Four months later, in May 2017, Turnbull overheard Trump telling Melania, “Turnbull’s a tough negotiator,” to which Melania replied, “Donald, just like you.”
Turnbull reflected, “Back then, Trump was the only decision-maker in the U.S.”
He emphasized that communication between leaders, not staff, was what mattered most.
He argued, “To persuade Trump, foreign leaders need to earn his respect and assert themselves strongly. Trump is like a playground bully—he tries to dominate others, and when he can’t, he shifts to deal-making. To get to that deal, leaders first have to stand up to his intimidation.” He added, “To Trump, alliances and friendships are just for press conferences. What matters is whether there’s something in it for him.
If Trump wins a second term, his instinct to surround himself with ‘yes-men’ will likely grow even stronger.”
It’s not clear if they were directly inspired by Turnbull, but the EU seems to be taking a similar approach.
Targeting Trump’s “MAGA voter base,” the EU has decided to hit back with strong, proportional measures.
On March 12, the European Commission announced that if the U.S. imposes steel tariffs on the EU, they’ll slap up to 50% additional tariffs on symbolic American products like motorcycles, jeans, and whiskey—effective the same day.
This is their “Phase 1” tariff plan.
Phase 2 involves targeting goods exported from Republican strongholds, focusing on products that could politically hurt the GOP but have alternative suppliers, minimizing damage to the EU.
An EU official cited soybeans from Louisiana—House Speaker Mike Johnson’s home state—as an example, saying, “We enjoy soybeans too, but we can just import them from Brazil or Argentina instead.” They added, “We’ll respond in a smart way that hits where it hurts the U.S.”
Turnbull recently gave another interview with Bloomberg. He said, “If Xi Jinping just does the opposite of Trump, the world will start comparing China and the U.S.
The closer you are to America, the more Trump will try to extract value from you and threaten you into submission.
” Trump seems to have caught wind of the interview. He fired back, “I always thought he was a weak and incompetent leader, and of course, the Australian people agreed with me!!!” Turnbull clapped back on ABC, saying, “International leaders who flattered and groveled to Trump all got trampled. Fawning over a bully just brings more bullying.
What every country needs to do is stand up to him—otherwise, we’re headed down a dangerous slope.” The Australian government tried to downplay the spat, noting, “Turnbull is no longer part of the administration.”
Trump had previously hinted that Australia might get a pass on tariffs since they import a lot of American goods like planes. It’s unclear if Turnbull’s comments swayed him, but Australia didn’t escape the 25% steel and aluminum tariffs after all. On March 11, a White House spokesperson confirmed, “The planned steel and aluminum tariffs will take effect at midnight on March 12 with no exceptions.”
Meanwhile, Mexico and Canada have taken the opposite approach to the same tariffs, which makes for an interesting contrast. Whether Turnbull’s “Trump playbook” holds water will become clear as we watch how these countries fare.
