16 May 2025

Excessive Optimism Can Be a Warning Sign


 Excessive Optimism Can Be a Warning Sign

  • The put/call ratio for the S&P 500 is dropping, signaling growing market optimism.

  • With positive headlines about trade, inflation, and employment flooding in, optimism is exploding across the options market.

  • A sharp decline in the put/call ratio = "Most investors think everything is fine."

  • But the more relaxed the sentiment, the more vulnerable the market becomes to unexpected shocks.


➡️ “This isn’t a signal just yet, but it’s a risky condition.”
Now is not the time to let your guard down — caution is still essential.

  • The Fear & Greed Index is at 69, approaching Extreme Greed territory.

  • A market flooded with optimism is often a warning sign in itself.

📉 No asset goes up forever.
Even in a bull market, technical corrections to cool off overheated momentum are inevitable.