In previous bull markets, the crypto market heated up rapidly with strong pumps and a surge of short-term investors. But in the current cycle, despite rising prices, the overall market sentiment remains relatively subdued.
On-chain data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin held for less than 1 week to 1 month is significantly lower compared to previous cycles. This suggests that the influx of speculative, short-term capital has slowed down.
So, why is this happening?
① Change in liquidity conditions
The 2020–2021 bull run was largely fueled by a highly abnormal macro environment—zero interest rates and aggressive quantitative easing. In contrast, we are currently in a high-interest-rate, liquidity-constrained phase. Capital is more cautious, and explosive price pumps are harder to achieve.
② Shift in market leadership: from retail to institutions
Following the approval of spot ETFs, the market has become increasingly structured, with institutional capital gradually taking the lead. This has created a stair-step type of growth centered around Bitcoin, rather than the parabolic rallies driven by retail mania. In other words, the market is evolving under an environment that avoids "irrational exuberance."
So, does this mean the bull cycle is over?
Some on-chain indicators might suggest the cycle has peaked if interpreted through past standards. However, this cycle is likely not following the same straightforward pattern. Instead of a sharp pump followed by a steep drop, we may be seeing a longer, more complex trajectory unfold.
Bottom line: patience is key.
ETF flows are still strong, and macroeconomic conditions are slowly showing signs of easing. By 2025 at the latest, we could see more significant movements across the market.
What’s required now is not blind optimism, but rather a deeper understanding of the slower market structure and the patience to match it.
