According to cryptocurrency news outlet Cointelegraph on April 6 (local time), the U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi has seen the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 surge to 61%.
This spike follows President Donald Trump’s signing of a sweeping tariff executive order on April 2. Kalshi defines a recession as “two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth,” aligning with the U.S. Department of Commerce’s standard. Just two weeks prior, on March 20, this probability hovered at half that level, but it nearly doubled after Trump’s tariff announcement triggered a sharp drop in asset markets and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.
This figure closely aligns with the 60% odds projected by participants on the Polymarket prediction platform.
Cointelegraph reported that Trump’s executive order imposes a baseline 10% tariff on all countries worldwide, with retaliatory tariffs designed to mirror those placed on U.S.
imports by other nations. The announcement sent U.S. stock markets into a panic, wiping out over $5 trillion in market capitalization in just a few days. Market experts warn that this tariff clash may not be a one-off event but could mark the beginning of a prolonged trade war, fueling a broad sell-off in risk assets—particularly cryptocurrencies and tech stocks.
Meanwhile, President Trump remains optimistic, framing the policy as a necessary step to address U.S. trade imbalances and lay the groundwork for long-term economic strength.
In a statement on April 3, he asserted, “The current downturn is just a scheduled correction, and the markets will soon soar again,” exuding confidence.
Cryptocurrency investor and asset management firm founder Anthony Pompliano has claimed that Trump is intentionally crashing markets to pressure the Federal Reserve (Fed) into cutting interest rates. Indeed, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has fallen from 4.66% in January to 4.00% by April 5. Trump has publicly pressed Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower short-term rates, amplifying his stance on monetary policy intervention.
