As global trade tensions escalate, Bitcoin has captured market attention by skyrocketing more than 33% in just 273 days since its April 2024 halving. This surge is driven by a surge of institutional interest and explosive demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The magnitude and speed of this rally are considered highly unusual compared to previous post-halving cycles, prompting analysts to speculate whether a new market era is unfolding.
In April last year, Bitcoin’s network underwent its fourth halving event, slashing block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC—a mechanism designed to control supply and maintain scarcity. While halvings have historically acted as catalysts for price increases, this cycle is playing out quite differently, according to CryptoNews.
According to crypto market data, Bitcoin surpassed an all-time high of $109,000 on January 20—just 273 days after the halving. For comparison, it took 546 days and 518 days to reach new highs after the 2020 and 2016 halvings, respectively.
Institutional Demand and Spot ETFs: Key Growth Drivers
Experts attribute the rapid price appreciation to robust institutional demand and the successful launch and growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
CryptoNews reports that Vugar Usi Zade, COO of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitget, stated:
“Strong institutional demand combined with the supply reduction from halving has become a powerful force pushing Bitcoin past the $90,000 mark and potentially toward new all-time highs.”
He added that while scarcity provides a solid foundation for price growth, the timing of actual price movements can vary based on broader market conditions.
Enmanuel Cardozo, a market analyst at tokenization platform Brickken, echoed the sentiment. He cited companies like Strategy and Tether actively purchasing Bitcoin as examples of institutional involvement accelerating market cycles.
Cardozo predicted:
“If the post-2024 halving trend mirrors previous cycles, we could expect a market bottom in Q3 2025 and a peak in mid-2026. However, with today’s increased liquidity and market maturity, these milestones may arrive sooner.”
Cautious Sentiment Amid Economic Uncertainty
Despite bullish trends, Cardozo noted that many investors remain cautious due to past volatility and ongoing economic uncertainty.
“Although Bitcoin is clearly in recovery mode, the lingering effects of past price crashes, persistent macro risks, and recent sell-offs have made investors hesitant. Many are choosing to wait for stronger bullish signals before committing capital,” he explained.
Geopolitical Risks Amplify Market Uncertainty
Geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-China trade conflict, continue to fuel market uncertainty. Analysts warn that these risks could weigh on investor sentiment and contribute to heightened market volatility.
Fed Policy Shift Could Boost Bitcoin
Meanwhile, potential changes in U.S. monetary policy, especially a widely anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May or June, could support Bitcoin prices. Lower rates may enhance liquidity and reignite investor appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.
A New Era? Bitcoin’s Post-Halving Speed Signals Market Shift
Despite external pressures, the speed and magnitude of Bitcoin’s post-halving surge suggest a shift in market dynamics. Institutional participation and financial instruments like ETFs appear to be reshaping how the market responds to Bitcoin’s halving cycles.
While historical patterns remain valuable references, new factors are accelerating price movement and redefining market behavior—potentially ushering in a new chapter in Bitcoin’s evolution.
