What if we hypothesize that the real goal behind Trump's tariff policy is to sell more of America's natural gas (especially LNG, liquefied natural gas) in the global market?
The idea is that Trump is using tariffs to pressure large markets like the EU and China, and turning it into a negotiation card, saying, "If you don’t buy our natural gas, your economy will suffer even more."
1 . The Connection Between Natural Gas and the U.S. Economy
The U.S. is a natural gas powerhouse.
Since the shale revolution, it has become one of the world's largest natural gas producers.
As of 2024, LNG exports have surpassed 100 million tons, and the U.S. is solidifying its position as the top exporter, surpassing Qatar and Australia.
During Trump’s first term, he boasted about "energy independence" and the "expansion of LNG exports."
When Trump said, "Make America Great Again (MAGA)," he saw natural gas as a key resource to boost economic growth and global influence.
By using tariffs to pressure European and Asian markets, he could encourage them to choose U.S. LNG over Russian or Middle Eastern sources.
2 . How does the trade war help sell natural gas?
Trump’s threat of a 200% tariff on EU wines (a statement made on March 12th) may not just be about trade retaliation, but rather a bait to bring them to the energy negotiation table.
Europe is trying to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, and U.S. LNG is a potential alternative.
By imposing tariffs and causing economic damage, there’s a higher chance Trump will offer deals like “If you buy our gas, we’ll lower the tariffs.”
The same applies to China.
Imposing tariffs on China would increase import costs and make it harder for them to meet energy demands.
China is an LNG importer, and getting them to buy more U.S. gas could reduce the trade deficit and strengthen their energy security—a two-in-one strategy.
Even if short-term inflation rises due to tariffs, increasing natural gas exports would bring in foreign currency and strengthen the energy-based economy, making it a long-term gain. While bond yields may rise, the revenue from natural gas could help boost the finances.
If the move is to use short-term market chaos as a bait while blaming "Biden" and create an image of "I saved the economy" through LNG exports, then the Trump era might be approaching again.
Additionally, if we add the "strong dollar and boosting Treasury bond demand" scenario to the natural gas strategy, things become even more realistic.
With a strong dollar, U.S. LNG becomes more competitive, tariffs boost negotiation power, global demand increases, and debt interest could be covered with natural gas profits.
And with the added framing of "America is great," this could be the hidden agenda behind Trump's tariff policy aimed at boosting natural gas sales. This is my personal scenario.
However, while my hypothesis might sound plausible, I firmly believe that the global economy isn’t controlled by one country (even if it’s the U.S.).
The EU is already increasing its imports of U.S. LNG (over 40% is U.S.-sourced as of 2024). I don’t expect explosive demand growth even if tariffs are further imposed.
It’s already close to saturation—so what’s the point? As for China, if they have no problem buying gas from Australia or Qatar, they might not bother with the more expensive U.S. gas.
The sequence is supposed to be:
Tariffs → Natural gas export revenue → But in reality:
Tariffs → Inflation → Public discontent → Natural gas export revenue.
The political damage in the short term will be immense, and it’s questionable whether they can handle it. (Remember, during his first term, he adjusted tariffs due to concerns about losing public support.)
Even if natural gas sales help supplement the budget, it will only be in the range of hundreds of billions of dollars annually.
To cover the $1.13 trillion in debt interest, they would need to sell massive amounts over several years, and if interest rates rise during that time, the debt burden will increase. Waiting for the "effect in a few years" means they’ll just be twiddling their thumbs.
If the EU or China retaliate with tariffs, it’s possible that the U.S. LNG export market could take a hit.
If Russia starts selling gas cheaply, Europe may shift to buying from them instead of the U.S.
Even if Trump says, "I’ll fix everything," it’s doubtful that the global market will fall for his bait.
If the sequence is Energy dominance → Strong dollar → Export competitiveness, it would add substance to the earlier "using dollar dominance" scenario.
However, this might not be the main objective, but rather a secondary gain.
The U.S. has a grand plan to maintain energy independence and global influence using natural gas as leverage.
If Trump’s tariffs are part of that, then debt management would be left to the Fed and fiscal adjustments, while Trump would be aiming for political points with the "Energy Superpower America" image.
He may be willing to endure rising Treasury bond yields, hoping to withstand it with natural gas revenues.
If Trump is using tariffs as a bait to target natural gas dominance, it's likely a clever strategy to flaunt "American greatness" while also gaining economic benefits.
But whether this is the real main goal, a secondary idea, or just another brainless move, I’m not sure. Today, once again, I’m becoming a daydreaming novelist.
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Looking at LNG export data and tariff negotiation results will give us some clues, and I hope we can recycle this into a post later. haha..
